Should Over-65s Have The Flu Vaccine?
Background
Recently my wife asked if I was having a vaccine. She was concerned because I suffered some infections last winter - likely due to a lowered immunity resulting from the traumatic effect of losing our beloved dog Lucy after > 17 years together!.
As a PhD scientist, my automatic response was that I would undertake a Risk-Benefit Analysis (RBA) consistent with the one that I had completed prior to considering a covid 19 vaccine in 2021. To be honest, I probably would not have done this several years ago as, like most, I relied on the NHS to protect me and my family. But a number of negative, personal experiences have altered my outlook. Fortunately my 50y career as a research scientist helped me to investigate and assess related, scientific evidence for the analysis.
At the outset, I was convinced that this RBA would result in a favourable outcome for what is widely considered to be an established, safe vaccine.
My assessment (sorry if its rather “heavy” for some!)
Using Public Health England (PHE) records, I discovered that the maximum probability of flu infection is much lower than I had imagined. That despite selecting peak infection rates for year 2017/18, which was reported as the worst year since 2010/11. Using an estimated maximum probability of hospitalisation for 2017/18 from those records, I was then able to conservatively evaluate the maximum probability of being both infected & hospitalised.
The theoretical protection (or benefit) offered by vaccination was then evaluated. Based on the likelihood that over-65s would be offered an adjuvanted vaccine, I used a conservative figure of its 60% effectiveness reported by the UK Government in 2019 for infection protection. That despite being aware of significantly lower figures elsewhere e.g. 34% reported by the Centre for Disease Control (CDC) in the US for 2019/20. For hospitalisation protection, average effectiveness and 10%-11% per month vaccine decline rates for those aged ≥65 years were used, as reported by the CDC.
An estimate of the average infection and hospitalisation effectiveness was made after 3 months i.e. mid-way through the flu season and main vaccine effectiveness period. These were then applied to the respective infection and hospitalisation rates in order to determine the vaccine benefit for each.
For the risk assessment, adjuvanted vaccine safety data were taken from a 3-year study. Only more serious adverse events (AEs) “of special interest” recorded within 6 months of vaccination were used to determine risk. These were lower for an earlier, “biologically plausible time window” defined by the World Health Organization, the US Food and Drug Administration, and the European Centre for Disease Control. However, I decided that I would personally also be concerned about serious adverse events that develop a little later such as convulsions and vasculitis!!.
The combined risk of AEs was then used to evaluate the risk/benefit ratio and the results indicate that the risks significantly outweigh the benefits eg ~1400 x for hospitalisation. Interestingly there were extremely few cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome reported in the aforementioned, 3-year study whereas other studies indicate significantly more cases - thus indicating further conservatism within the analysis. Also the potential for longer-term risks with adjuvanted vaccines was not considered. So significant conservatism was used throughout meaning the risk/benefit could be significantly higher than estimated.
Nutritional therapy
There is no reference in the aforementioned studies to optimisation of immune systems via Nutritional Therapy which would be expected to protect against viruses like the flu. For example, a meta-analysis of 10 Randomised Control Trials (RCTs) and another RCT, indicate that vitamin D alone can prevent influenza and influenza-like infections.
Further nutrition and lifestyle measures – which a qualified Nutritional Therapist can advise on - are expected to reduce the likelihood of infections even more.
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Disclaimer:
This blog is produced using recorded personal information and has been compiled in good faith for educational purposes. It also includes reference(s) to other information provided by relevant organisations sourced via the internet and my related interpretation. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the above, I cannot accept liability for any unknown errors, omissions or misinterpretation of the information.
The information provided is not a substitute for professional medical advice which can be sought from a medical professional or other healthcare provider.
